Mortgage rates barely move as economic uncertainty persists

Last week we noted that the 2014 decline in mortgage rates was about over.

In last week’s Market Trends newsletter, a weekly examination of the economic indicators which influence mortgage rates, Keith Gumbinger wrote, “Even though the recent spate of economic data has been rather disappointing, hopes are still high that the slowness in the economy is temporary, and that we’ll start to see improvements as we move deeper into the year.”

Well, another week has gone by and the economic data appears to be just as disappointing.

“Last autumn’s relative certainty about the direction for the economy has given way to this winter’s relative uncertainty,” wrote Gumbinger on Friday evening. “This concern about the strength of demand and prospects for growth helped trim the top off of the 2013 rise in mortgage rates, which eased back for the first five weeks of 2014, are now wandering mostly sideways.”

Current mortgage rates

Every product except the 5/1 ARM saw an increase in HSH.com’s Monday-through-Friday survey. The overall average for the 5/1 Hybrid ARM now sits at its lowest point since late November 2013:

• 30-year: The overall average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages (conforming, non-conforming and jumbo) increased by four basis points (0.04 percent) to land at 4.44 percent for the week ending Feb. 21, 2014.
• 15-year: The overall average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages (conforming, non-conforming and jumbo) rose by three basis points to 3.55 percent.
• FHA: FHA-backed 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased by five basis points to land at 4.06 percent.
• 5/1 ARM: The 5/1 Hybrid ARM eased by two hundredths of a percentage point (0.02 percent) to an average rate of 3.06 percent.

What’s in store for this week?

There will be some additional economic reports released this week to give us a firmer view of where the economy is trending, including new-home sales and the second look at the fourth quarter GDP.

Expect much of the same this week with mortgage rates wandering sideways. We expect mortgage rates to be virtually unchanged by the end of this week.

To learn more, be sure to read our weekly Market Trends newsletter.

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